In the workbook labelled “Forecast using analogy”, use the coefficients of p (individual force) and q (social force) given for the analogous product “Electric Vehicles” found in the Exhibit 9 “Ride
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In the workbook labelled “Forecast using analogy”, use the coefficients of p (individual force) and q (social force) given for the analogous product “Electric Vehicles” found in the Exhibit 9 “Ride Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber’s Growth”. Use the global market potential (m) you calculated in part a). What is the forecast for the cumulative number of Uber drivers in 2021 (annual number)?
In the workbook labelled “Forecast using data” use the market potential (m) as derived above and from the best fit regression of forecasted data on the actual data estimate the p and q parameters. To do that use the excel function Solver as instructed in the workbook labelled “Instructions”. Solver find the best proportions p and q such that the forecast of the number of drivers is as accurate as possible given the actual data (historical Uber data in this case). What is the annual value forecasted for the number of Uber drivers in 2021
Refer to Exhibit 10 of the paper case “Ride Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber’s Growth”. Take the data for year 2018 in respect of Rides per Driver and Fee/Gross Booking per Ride, assume the same data are applicable in the year 2021, and forecast Uber’s revenue for year 2021. Use the formula indicated in the paper case, i.e.: number of drivers in the period (for the year of 2021); multiplied by the average number of trips per driver in the period; multiplied by the average fee charged for a trip; multiplied by the platform’s cut (i.e. 25%).
Explain how you would select the analogous disruptive technologies whose estimates could be used to predict the growth of Uber using Bass Model. Do you think Electric Vehicles is a good analogy to use to forecast Uber’s growth
Explain which assumptions used in the computation of market potential have high level of uncertainty. How would your account for that uncertainty in the models we used above?
