Like it or not, professional sport is business, and a significant portion of a professional sports franchise’s revenues are home game attendance, with all the revenues remaining with the home or host team.
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2019 Toronto Blue Jays Attendance
Like it or not, professional sport is business, and
a significant portion of a professional sports franchise’s revenues are home game
attendance, with all the revenues remaining with the home or host team. Strongly related to that are the concession
sales or food, beverages, and memorabilia to the fans that attend the games.
The Toronto Blue Jays are located in the fifth
largest sports market in North America, yet they only managed to draw just over
1.75 million fans, 21st out of 30 teams in the league. The Blue Jays were near the bottom of the
league in percentage of seats sold, with less than 45% of the available seats
sold. By contrast, in the few years following the opening of the Skydome, now
Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays drew over 4 million fans several years in a row.
The owner of the Toronto Blue Jays is Rogers
Communications, a publicly traded company and also owner of the Rogers
Centre. Therefore, it is in the
shareholder’s best interests to improve attendance. (
You are advising Mark Shapiro, President of the
Blue Jays, with respect to the factors that influence attendance at the
games. Past studies comparing the 30
teams in Major League Baseball have shown that team success is positively
correlated to overall attendance; fans want to see their home team win. In studying game-to-game variation in
attendance, it is not clear whether the significant factor is
- the team’s overall record, as measured in games
above or below 0.500 (±500) or,
- the team’s proximity to a playoff position, as
measured in the games ahead or behind (GB, for Games Below, so negative
values mean being in first place), or
- the game’s leverage, cLI, a measure created to
assess the relative importance of a game in terms of the impact the team’s
likelihood of winning the championship; a game of average impact is 1,
while games of great impact have values above 1, while at the other
extreme a team that had been eliminated from playoff contention has a cLI
of 0
Scheduling is known to have some effect, as weekend
games tend to be better attended than weekday games. Other scheduling factors include competing
against Toronto’s favourite sport, hockey (The Toronto Maple Leafs’ season
ended April 23, the playoffs ended June 12), playing on statutory holidays, and
playing afternoon games on weekdays, when many people of working. Additionally, when the Blue Jays play their
divisional opponents, the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, fan interest
is greater and historically, attendance has been high, aided by a significant
number of
In 2019, there were three player debuts that could
have possibly impacted attendance. All three were sons of very successful baseball
players, so the expectation for this trio have been high and their arrival had
been anticipated for some time:
- Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., son of second-ballot
Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero; debut April 26
- Cavan Biggio, son of third-ballot Hall of
Famer Craig Biggio; debut May 24
- Bo Bichette, son of 4-time All Star, Dante
Bichette, debut July 29 – an “away” game.
