The purpose of the Assignment is to forecast the revenue growth for a ride-hailing company like Uber.
finance
Description
The purpose of the Assignment is to forecast
the revenue growth for a ride-hailing company like Uber.
We will be using for reference the case in the
coursepack “Ride Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber’s Growth”. This case presents a model, the Bass Model,
that could be used to forecast Uber’s growth in number of drivers/riders and
starting from there, to forecast the growth in its revenues.
All the necessary instructions, data and
guidance are in the paper case and the spreadsheet attached.
Question 1
In the workbook labelled “Market
Potential”, compute the total market potential (m) under the assumptions therein
set forth and restated for your convenience below:
The smallest city size for a profitable
operation is 50,000 (for a total population in such cities see Exhibit 7 of the
paper case “Ride Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber’s Growth”)
The market potential in NYC is 80,000
drivers for a population of 8,622,698
The proportion of this number of drivers
to population is the same across the US
The current ratio of Uber drivers in the
US to the rest of the world is 1:3. We assume it's going to grow to 1:4 (meaning
the number applicable for US should be multiplied 5 times to estimate the
global number).
[Enter your answer in millions. For
example, if your answer is 1,580,000, then you would enter 1.58]
Question 2
b) In the workbook labelled “Forecast
using analogy”, use the coefficients of p (individual force) and q (social
force) given for the analogous product “Electric Vehicles” found in the Exhibit
9 “Ride Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber’s Growth”. Use the global market
potential (m) you calculated in part a). What is the forecast for the
cumulative number of Uber drivers in 2021 (annual number)?
[Enter your answer in thousands. For
example, if your answer is 8,000,000, then you would enter 8000]
