Description

Overview

This project is meant to be a culmination of all that you have learned about system dynamics, and system dynamics modeling.  I would like for each of you to choose your own business article that you think describes a dynamic business problem.  From that article you need to build a model of the problem and submit an executive summary to me.  The following is a breakdown of how I will be grading you on this project:

Article:                          10 Points

Model:                          15 Points

Executive Summary:       45 Points

Article Grading

            I expect you to choose an article that has a legitimate business problem that you believe to be dynamic in nature.  This should be an easy 10 points.

Model Grading

You will be graded using three separate criteria.  First is how easy your model is to understand.  Don’t add things that don’t belong.  Remember that more complicated is not always better, and simple models are often the most useful.  Second, your model should have at least one stock and flow structure (see assignment #3).  Third, your model should have at least one causal loop (see assignment #2).  These three criteria are worth 5 points each.  Any common modeling errors will result in point deductions (ex: linking variables directly into a stock, missing links from flows to stocks, modeling variables as levels [box variables], etc.).

Executive Summary Grading

            I would like you to approach this assignment as if you are either a consultant or part of an internal group assigned to the problem described in your article.  I would expect you to include multiple references to topics we’ve learned throughout the semester.  The following is an outline with examples of things you might consider including in your paper.  This is not intended to be an exhaustive list of items you should include but will hopefully point you in the right direction.

Introduction                                  - 1 to 2 paragraphs

            Brief overview of article

Problem Articulation

Dynamic Hypothesis                     - 2 to 3 paragraphs

How did the problem arise (bounded rationality, mental models, policy resistance, path dependence, flawed cognitive maps, etc.?)

Endogenous explanations         

Modeling process                          - 3 to 5 paragraphs

            Explanation of causal loops (what is their polarity?)

            Model assumptions

            Validation methods

            Modes of behavior (oscillation, exponential growth, s-shaped growth)

Policy Review                                - 3 to 5 paragraphs

            What are your policy change recommendations?

            What is the expected outcome of such changes?

            Will these changes cause any unintended consequences?

            How long will it take for these policies to become effective (delays)?

Conclusion                                     - 1 to 2 paragraphs

This is the most subjective portion of the assignment and I encourage you to be mindful of your writing style, grammar, etc.  If your paper is full of errors, or simply a regurgitation of the article and/or text you will probably not receive a very good grade.  There is no specific length requirement, but I imagine you will need about 5 – 7 pages to sufficiently explain your findings.

Submission

            You will need to submit three separate items to me.  I want a copy of the article that you are using, the model that you built, and your executive summary.  All three items should be submitted in the assignments tab in Learn.  Models will not be accepted by any other means.

Here is the book link:

https://www.academia.edu/36052677/Sterman_I_1_ISBN_007238915X_TITLE_BUSINESS_DYNAMICS_SYSTEMS_THINKING

Transcropt.txt is the Prof. words.