We assess that the Taliban almost certainly is continuing its alliance with Al Qaeda
political science
Description
Intellig
Afghanistan: The Taliban Almost Certainly Continues Alliance with Al Qaeda
after Agreement for U.S. Withdrawal
Key Judgements:
▪
We assess that the
Taliban almost certainly is continuing its alliance with Al Qaeda
▪
We assess that this
alliance means almost certainly that the United States cannot trust the Taliban
to constrain Al Qaeda to not threaten the United States and its global
interests
We assess that
the Taliban almost certainly is continuing its alliance with Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda and the Taliban have a multi-decade history or
mutual cooperation. Al Qaeda’s
leadership have re-sworn loyalty to Mullah Akhunzada, the leader of the
Taliban.
• Taliban leadership and Al Qaeda leadership have been found
together recently in the same hiding places in Afghanistan.[1]
• The second in command of the Taliban, Sirajuddin Haqqani,
is a very close associate of Ayman al Zawihiri, the leader of Al Qaeda. Haqqani is taking an increasingly central
role in the organization and may be the group’s de facto leader at this point.[2]
• Al Qaeda training camps continue to operate in areas of
Afghanistan under Talban control.[3]
• The Taliban leadership continues to extol Al Qaeda in its
propaganda.[4]
We
assess that this alliance means almost certainly that the United States cannot
trust the Taliban to constrain Al Qaeda to not threaten the United States and
its global interests.
•
Al Qaeda has made
clear its continued intent to strike the United States.[5]
•
The Taliban has
promised in the past to constrain Al Qaeda and has done no such thing.[6]
•
The primary, immediate
goal of the Taliban is to guarantee a U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan that
will likely precipitate a fall of the government in Kabul and eventual Taliban
return to power. Promising the United
States that the Taliban will not allow terrorism to emanate from Afghanistan is
an instrumental promise to the U.S. that is not supported by the facts on the
ground.[7]
•
While the Taliban has
no desire to attack the continental United States, it also will not make
serious efforts to prevent Al Qaeda from doing that.[8]
This brief was
prepared by Karl Kaltenthaler
Source Summary Statement: [We have high confidence in our analytic
judgments. We have medium confidence in
the sources used in this analysis. The
Taliban is not a completely unified organization. Some of the reporting for this assessment may
be more accurate for some elements of the Taliban than others.]
[1] Bill Roggio “Taliban secured release of wife of senior AQIS leader” The Long War
Journal https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/09/taliban-secured-release-of-wife-of-senior-aqis-leader.php 11 September
2020
[2] Lynne O’Donnel and Marwais Khan“Leader of Afghan Taliban Said to Be Gravely Ill with the
Coronavirus” Foreign Policy https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/01/afghan-taliban-coronavirus-pandemic-akhunzada/
1 June 2020
[3] United Nations. “Eleventh report of the Analytical
Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2501
(2019) concerning the Taliban and other associated individuals and entities
constituting a threat to the peace, stability and security of Afghanistan” https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/06/01/n2011060.pdf
27 May 2020 27 May
2020
[4] Saurav Sarkar “The Taliban
and al-Qaeda: Enduring Partnership or Liability?” The Diplomat. 16 https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/the-taliban-and-al-qaeda-enduring-partnership-or-liability/ June 2020
[5] “U.S. Report: ISIS and Al Qaeda
Threats in 2019” Wilson Center. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/us-report-isis-and-al-qaeda-threats-2019 30 June 2020
[6] Bill Roggio Taliban again denies Al Qaeda is in
Afghanistan The Long War Journal
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/07/taliban-again-denies-al-qaeda-is-in-afghanistan.php
7 July 2020
[7]“Taliban, Al Qaeda Retain Ties Despite
U.S.-Taliban Deal, U.N. Monitors Say”
Reuters. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-06-01/taliban-al-qaeda-retain-ties-despite-us-taliban-deal-un-monitors-say 1 June 2020
[8] Catherine Putz “ UN Report: Taliban Maintains Ties to Al-Qaeda” The
Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/un-report-taliban-maintains-ties-to-al-qaida/
2 June 2020
